In my previous post, http://kaplowtech.blogspot.com/2011/02/other-countdownthe-consumer-usage-bomb.html, I took at look at the bandwidth utilization trend in my house. It was clear then that I was on a track to being an “excessive use” customer, and it is even clearer now. My previous estimate, based on a linear fit to the data was that by December 2011 I would hit the cap. The usage collected over the last two months, even with a dip in February, confirms the trend.
The question is: What drove the utilization jump in March? It is quite simple, March was Spring Break month and my oldest son decided to catch-up on his favorite TV program, Burn Notice, as well as a large assortment of other TV shows and movies.
You could ask the question of whether the trend will continue as how many movies and TV episodes a typical family can watch month after month on-line. My answer is yes, as the types of content and the devices use to access that content are increasing steadily.
For example, I am not watching the Masters Golf Tournament on my TV, but on my computer as I write this message. With two monitors, my office laptop provides a great platform to enjoy some video at the same time as I get some work done. This is not restricted to laptops and desktops, as other devices are here and more are emerging every day.
The same capability now exists in pads, game consoles, TVs, and BlueRay players. This opens-up a whole new arena for using Internet-based media. No longer relegated to the computer or laptop format, Internet video now comes directly into the living room. Without any hard statistics, I would estimate that much less than one percent of all TVs are connected to the Internet. This will certainly increase during the next several years as WiFi enabled TVs with Netflix and other streaming services built-in are available now. At some point, these capabilities will become standard and then there will be millions of additional devices, with a set of user friendly controls that will make finding and watching streaming content as easy as the channel guides that are a part of cable and satellite TV today.
More content yes, but more importantly more devices that fit not only computer-based viewing, but devices that fit the traditional TV-type viewing environment.
So, the countdown to bandwidth caps ticks away - how will this change the industry money model?
1 comment:
Wes - thanks for posting this. I've found myself on a similar trend - especially given how often there doesn't seem to be anything interesting on the 200+ channels I get from DirecTV. The lack of engaging programming has me, like so many other people, thinking about cutting the cable/satellite TV habit.
Rick Spencer, NCE, IEEE
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