Monday, September 19, 2011

Post Office Future Redux


In late 2009 at a “Tea” discussion of the D.C. Chapter of the Internet Society, Michael Nelson, others, and I discussed what the “’Net” was likely to be in the year 2020.  One of the specific areas was what was to become of the U.S. Postal Service.  Following-up, I wrote this blog entry in October of 2009:


What I tried to point out was that the Postal Service has specific and unique capabilities that can map to problems that appear in the electronic frontier.  With imagination the Postal Service could still be relevant.

With the looming partial shutdown of the Postal system without additional Federal dollars, the system continues to fail to grasp new opportunities that do not necessarily revolve around Saturday delivery of mail (or the clearly below cost delivery of bulk mail enabling enterprises such as NetFlix to flourish).

Let’s try on a 20th century idea for the Postal Service:

Create a by-law recognized official and legal communication mechanism by electronic mail.  Legal documents delivered by Certified mail are just that.  Current email does not have the non-repudiation, and other characteristics necessary for Certified delivery.  The Postal Service could setup a “Certified” mailbox upon request by anyone.  There are several technical approaches, but the Postal Service accrediting one or more approaches is the point .

So, how are you sure that you have the right person?  There are hundreds of thousands of letter carriers that visit every home and business multiple times every week.  This is the workforce necessary to perform Public Key exchanges (or another form of validation).  The Postal Service could provide and deliver USB-type keys to be used to sign official documents to the government, financial institutions, and businesses.  For over 200 years we trusted the Postal Department (and not the Postal Service) to handle our most critical and personal matters.

And there is more.  Today, fraud in email is handled by local law enforcement and the FBI.  However, with a Postal Service provided capability – whether hosted by the Postal Service, a public service provider, or local to a business – we could start enforcing Postal regulations for the use of these services.  Interfering with this type of email delivery, either by spammers or by hackers, would immediately be a Federal crime with the enforcement starting with the Postal Inspector.

The government has a Constitutional responsibility for providing for the Post.  This purpose was to ensure the operation of Commerce and Law.  The only future for the Postal Service is for it to leverage its unique legal position and explore ways to improve commerce.

Currently, the only talk is about reducing delivery schedules and closing post offices.  Is there anyone out there that has any imagination?

Sunday, September 11, 2011

My Recollection from a Decade Ago and How it Impacts Me Today


No one that knows me well will ever accuse me of having a great memory.  But, like so many other people, my personal experiences on September 11, 2011 are forever frozen vividly in my mind.  Moreover, the experience guides my actions today.

It all starts off with what appears to be the most common collective experience – an absolutely beautiful day with the most striking blue sky.   I first noticed the sky as I drove on the George Washington Parkway right near CIA complex on my way to my office in the then Qwest building in the Ballston area of Fairfax.

It is pretty blank from that moment to the moment that Amy, my wife, called me in a bit of a panic.  With tremendous concern she told me that a plane had hit one of the World Trade Center towers.  My first thoughts, apparently the same as the President of the United States of America, were that a small plan accidently hit the building.  I started surfing the Web for more information.  A bit later, she called me back and her voice had a disturbing tone and panicky quavers - the second plane hit WTC Tower 2.  That was the moment when we all knew that something was much more terribly amiss.

I left my office and entered the small conference room associated with my boss, James F. X. Payne.  There was a meeting going on, but I do not remember the others in the room.  I told them that there was something going on, and turned on the television in the room.  The confusion and impact of the intrusion faded as the world-wide coverage of the event has already started.   We watched the fires and smoke rise from the buildings.

I remember thinking and discussing the damage to the buildings.  As people also know about me, I am an eternal optimist.  If the glass if half-full, the other half is full of humidity.  My non-professional assessment was that the structural damage to the building would not cause the buildings to fail, and that eventually the buildings would be restored.  I was right about the structure but completely wrong about the impact of the fires.  The fate of the building and over two thousand people was already sealed.

While all the events in New York were unfolding, there was a news report on the TV that a loud noise was heard near the Pentagon.   There was little known, except that it started the mass exodus of people from their place of work to their homes.

I had a meeting setup with Jim Johnson from Time Warner Telecom (now tw telecom).  It seems a bit ridiculous that we kept the meeting.  Traffic in the area around Ballston was in gridlock, so going home immediately was not an option.  I left my office building and walked across the street to the outdoor seating area in front of a building where Jim was waiting.  Luckily, I was able to call Amy on my mobile phone, and she told me that all flights have been grounded but that there was at least one other plane that was thought to be in hijackers controls.  I can only assume that this was Flight 93.  Every now and then, I searched the sky, but by that time there were no planes anywhere to be seen.  I do not remember at all what Jim and I talked about, but I am sure that we discussed the day’s events as we best knew them, some business, and thoughts about how to get back to normalcy.

An hour or so later, I started my trek home, north on Glebe Road towards the Chain Bridge.  Traffic was horrible, but it moved.  I wanted to get over the Potomac as quickly as possible, so when I had the decision to go on Chain Bridge Road to the George Washington Parkway and then onto the American Legion Bridge or take the Chain Bridge into the District, I chose to cross the Chain Bridge. 

Going over the bridge, there is only a single legal option.  That is to make a right turn onto Canal Road – or more specifically for me, the wrong direction.  In an uncharacteristic act of traffic defiance – I took the opportunity to make an illegal left turn, onto an essentially empty Clara Barton Parkway and then quickly home.

After that my memory has faded.  I only wanted to know that my family was safe at home.  I had significant difficulty calling my mother due to the impact of the Towers destroying the Verizon Central Office near Ground Zero.

Home, I remember firing-off an email that outlined my impression that radical Islam had replaced Communism as the new rallying cry of the despot looking to achieve power and overthrow civilization.  Living near Washington, D.C., periodically, military jets noisily swooshed over my neighborhood.   I now pass a Patriot Missile Battery nearly every day on my way to work.

A somewhat humorous event happened the next day.   All the schools were closed, and Amy arranged for Seth to have a play date with someone from school.   The house was in Avenel, a beautiful and upscale community near our home.  In fact, it was in “the” Avenel house.  The play date was uneventful, but Seth came home and asked two questions.  First, “Daddy, why don’t we have a fountain in the driveway”, and the second “Why doesn’t our house have an elevator”?

Here are some final recollections of the days after the event.  The first was that I was glad that my father, Howard J. Kaplow of Blessed Memory was not in a condition to fully understand what had happened.  As a veteran of World War II, he did not have to add to his memories of the attack on Pearl Harbor and the violence he experienced as a soldier in Europe. 

Next, the Qwest building in Ballston has a glass wall that rises from the 13th to the 14th floor facing north.  On a normal day, a plane every 30 seconds or so would pass on their way to Regan National Airport.  With air traffic grounded, I remember looking out and wondering when the planes would fly again.

Finally, I recall was that for several nights I went to sleep praying and hoping that somehow I had the capability to change events.

Alas, changing events of the past is impossible.  The passing of a great man and friend two weeks ago reinforced what we all must do.  Live every day as it is the most important day of our lives, focusing our energy on our family and friends.  For so many families, the events of 10 years ago cannot be changed, and for them and the thousands of Service Men and Women that keep us safe, their families will never be the same.

The impact of the event, and its consequences drove into me something that guides my actions at work, particularly since most of my effort is to support the government, generally in the area of national defense.   I believe that for every action taken, for every dollar spent, and for every process followed you have to ask two questions:
  • Is what we are doing protecting the United States of America?
  • Is what we are doing to help us protect our soldiers and help them get the bad guys?
Everything else is a waste and jeopardizes our country and its people.


God Bless You.  And God Bless America.

Sunday, September 4, 2011

More Usage, Same Cost - Boom!


This is the next in the installment of home bandwidth usage here at chez Kaplow.

In http://kaplowtech.blogspot.com/2011/02/other-countdownthe-consumer-usage-bomb.html, I took a first look at the bandwidth utilization trend in my house.  I was concerned that I was on the path of being an “excessive” bandwidth user.

Next, in http://kaplowtech.blogspot.com/2011/04/other-countdown-is-back.html, the trend continued it is appeared that in just a few months the bandwidth police from Comcast was going to raid my house to turn off my bandwidth hogging toys.

So, where do I stand today?


As the graph shows, my usage has varied significantly since my last posting on this topic.  The suspicious drops in April and May could possibly be attributed to my oldest Son preparing for final examinations at school, with the rebound in June as my Sons and I return to Netflix and Xbox Live.

Even with these dips is it clear that in the first six months of the above period the average usage was approximately 70 GBytes transferred per month and in the succeeding six months this average rose to 120 GBytes transferred, a 70% increase.  So, at the very least, even though I did not reach the 250 GByte limit, I certainly represent an increase in demand on the Comcast distribution network and of course the Internet itself.

The Least Squares fit of the data currently predicts that in June of 2012, I should expect that knock on my Internet door for excessive use.

So far, Comcast has not increased the price of my Internet service.   However, as it is less likely (as it is for others) for me to order additional cable-based video on-demand services or premium channels (due to Netflix and other Internet-based content services), a service provider like Comcast would appear to be in a bind.  To keep the same earnings and profit margin with revenue capped or declining and competition for Internet services increasing (both from wireline and wireless providers) a provider has to either reduce their costs (e.g., efficiency) or increase prices.

For many 3G and now 4G wireless customers, much smaller bandwidth quotes with significant overage fees are de rigor.  Any predictions on price increases or other service changes for wired Internet service?