The Market Keeps Shifting – Where do you find stability and growth?

So, apparently CenturyLink will not buy Sprint for their wireless network and services.  The CFO of CentryLink says that it is much more important to continue to integrate their recent acquisitions (i.e., Qwest and Savvis) than to continue their buying spree:

http://www.fiercetelecom.com/story/centurylink-wont-buy-sprint-will-focus-business-broadband-opportunities/2011-08-11

This is probably good news for local customers as CenturyLink will have to improve their broadband Internet service offerings to attract new customers.  With a drive to higher speeds and IPTV services, what could go wrong?

Well, in this economy and the shifts in technology and social activity, there are a couple I can think of immediately:

1. Adding new areas to the broadband footprint is expensive
2.  Subscribers to Pay TV services took their largest decline in history.

In the above Fierce Telecom article, Qwest was quoted that it added only 12,000 net broadband subscribers for all of second quarter 2011.  I am pretty confident that there were many more traditional voice (read POTS) customers that cut the cord completely.

As for adding IPTV Pay services, competition, new Internet-based services, broadband wireless, new Internet-based social activities, and the economy are causing record number of customers to leave Cable and Satellite TV services:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/pay-tv-faces-toxic-mix-as-subscribers-cancel-in-record-numbers/2011/08/10/gIQAH6Vk7I_story.html

So, for traditional telecom companies that do not have wireless services, the pressure is on to find the formula to stabilize revenue and find customer and revenue growth:

1. Wireless 4G services.  A few more customers that cut the cord at home,
2. Streaming and Downloaded Internet Video.  Even if it does not kill wired to the home video, it certainly reduces the likely revenue per customer (i.e., fewer OnDemand and premium channel purchases)
3. Price Competition.  Satellite TV may continue to drive to very competitive and tailored packages.  Hard to fund wired infrastructure builds in an area where you can get the right share to make the numbers work.
4. It’s the economy, stupid.  We are all starting to cut back.  People are apparently much more likely to trade Pay TV, POTS, and maybe even wired broadband services to keep their ever increasing in capability mobile device.
5. Business Services.  Customers are using the Internet-based VPN services as opposed to MPLS/VPN services to save dollars (reduced dedicated access costs, more competitive pricing, etc.).

So, can these traditional telecom companies find stability without wireless services?   If I can figure something out, it will be the topic of a future post.